For the current period ‘Week 9-11’ (which is usually the peak listing period) listings are down 27.3% on the same time last year, and 21.3% over the last 5 years. This is important because prices have been slowly easing month on month since the ‘peak’ in March 2022. However in 2023 price drops have all but turned around across the Upper North Shore. Oddly, sellers are delaying their timing to sell as they ‘watch the market’. As they watch, they are starting to feel encouraged as the falling prices seem to have stopped in some areas. However, this is looking like a false economy when we look at the data in context and realise that while listing numbers are down, buyers numbers are up, significantly. Our open home numbers are in the vicinity of 60% higher than the same time last year. A simple economist’s view of supply and demand would make it obvious as to why prices are looking good at the moment as buyers are battling it out on the auction floor for what limited stock there is. The issue will be whether this is an anomaly - a dead cat bounce - in the transition from a peak to trough market or whether it is the beginning of a new market. What I know is that timing the market is a tricky game and very few clients time it perfectly, the perfect timing is ‘at the same time’ when buying and selling. Local market We are seeing more than 80% of our scheduled auctions selling under the hammer and of those a high percentage are selling well in excess of the reserve price. We have had five auctions in two weeks go more than $150,000 over the reserve price. The second half of 2022 was heavily impacted by buyers going cold with the fear of seemingly never-ending interest rate rises, and sellers selfassessing their homes with continued downward trajectory from the peak causing a concave vs convex trend in the data as each party drifted from each other. 2023 has seen buyers come back into the market with adjusted budgets, confident in their borrowing capacity based on information from the RBA that we may see the end of rate rises soon. Further, we have seen sellers for the most part meeting the market with realistic expectations based on comparable and surrounding sales, albeit from a small base. Wider market Sydney house prices have fallen 14.7% over the last 12 months, meaning that a house is, on average, worth 14.7% less in March 2023 than it was in March 2022. However, based on the lower stock levels we saw Sydney property prices increase 0.3% last week and 1% over the past 28 days, firming up earlier commentary about WELCOME TO YOUR MARKET UPDATE So far 2023 has been the slowest start to a selling season we have almost ever seen. RP Data has released national listing figures which are consistent or, if anything, conservative in comparison to the Upper North Shore.
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