Office Market Monitor | 2022 5 Source: PCA, Clio Research While net interstate migration does play a role in influencing office demand, the impact is smaller as Australian migrants don’t generate as much need for new services. For this reason, the big surge in interstate migrants to Queensland doesn’t have the same impact on the Brisbane office market as overseas migrants have on Sydney and Melbourne. Source: ABS What is clear from historic patterns is that economic downturns do impact demographics. It is likely that 2023 will be one in which many countries will experience recessions, and Australia’s growth rate is almost certain to decline as interest rates bite. Investors and owners should be aware that that may result in fewer migrant moves for some years, as happened after the GFC. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Gross New CBD Office Supply Syd & Mel All other CBDs -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Mar-2006 Mar-2007 Mar-2008 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016 Mar-2017 Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022 Net Interstate Migration by State (qtrly) NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Source: Property Council of Australia Gross New C Office Supply Syd & Mel All other CBDs While net interstate migration does play a role in influencing office demand, the impact is smaller as Australian migrants don’t generate as much need for new services. For this reason, the big surge in interstate migrants to Queensland doesn’t have the same impact on the Brisbane office market as overseas migrants have on Sydney and Melbourne. Source: PCA, Clio Research Whil ne interstat migration does play a role in influencing office demand, the impact is smaller as Australian migrants don’t generat as much need for new services. For this reason, the big surge in interstate migrants to Quee sland doesn’t have the same impact on the Brisbane office market as overseas migrants have on Sydney and Melbourne. Sourc : ABS What is clear fr m historic patterns is that economic downturns do impact demographics. It is likely that 2023 will be one in which many countries will experience recessions, and Australia’s growth rate is almost certain to decline as interest rates bite. Investors and owners should be aware that that may result in fewer migrant moves for some years, as happened after the GFC. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Gross New CBD Office Supply Syd & Mel All other CBDs -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20 0 Mar-2006 Mar-2007 Mar-2008 Mar-2009 Mar-2010 Mar-2011 Mar-2012 Mar-2013 Mar-2014 Mar-2015 Mar-2016 Mar-2017 Mar-2018 Mar-2019 Mar-2020 Mar-2021 Mar-2022 Net Interstate Migration by State (qtrly) NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Net Interstate Migration by State (Qtrly) NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT What is clear from historic patterns is that economic downturns do impact demographics. It is likely that 2023 will be one in which many countries will experience recessions, and Australia’s growth rate is almost certain to decline as interest rates bite. I vestors and owners should be aware that that may result in fewer migrant moves for some years, as happened fter th GFC.
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