0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 % annual change Source: ABS State final demand (Left axis) Completions (right axis) '000 sq m Forecast 16 An above average 500,000 square metres of new supply was completed across the Brisbane metropolitan area during 2022, across circa 39 projects (> 3,000 square metres in size). Of the projects completed over the last year, the Southern and Western Corridors continued to dominate activity. The volume of completions represented a substantial step up from the 320,000 square metres completed in 2021. Most of the developments completed in 2022 were underpinned by tenant pre-commitment. However, a notable proportion commenced on a speculative basis. Major developers including GPT, Goodman, and ESR rolled out speculative developments and low vacancy rates ensured they were successful in securing tenants. Based on projects under construction and approvals data, around 650,000 square metres of new builds are due for completion metro wide by the end of 2023 and 2024 is expected to be another very strong year for supply, surpassing this mark. Activity will be supported by large pre-committed spaces including Coles (circa 66,000 square metres at Redbank), Winning Appliance (circa 46,000 square metres at Wacol), Bapcor Limited (45,000 square metres at Redbank), a 36,000 square metres facility committed to CEVA at Berrinba and a 23,000 square metres warehouse for Burndy Cable Support at Acacia Ridge. As elsewhere, there is the potential for project completions to slip due to capacity constraints across the construction industry. Approvals data over the year to November 2022 showed circa $1.92b of industrial projects was approved, heavily skewed towards warehouses. This represents a 37% increase on the figure for the previous year. Around 27% of warehouse approvals over the 12 months to November 2022 are in Ipswich, with 69% captured in the greater Brisbane area. A mixture of pre-leases and spec construction is expected to continue as the major developers look to capture requirements with both longer and shorter turnaround times. Without servicing/ rezoning delays, there is plenty of planned industrial land to meet our supply forecasts. Supply Supply outlook Brisbane demand and new supply 5-7 Thorsborne Street, Beenleigh QLD 4207 Industrial Market Monitor | 1st Half 2023
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